Losing consistently in a trend is frustrating. It tends to make people feel either stupid or conspired against. The market always goes up ... until you buy. What's with that?submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]
If you find yourself getting the run around in trending moves, this post should help.
We'll start with having a look at the areas common styles of trend following can generate losing signals '/ stop losses. The two main types of trend trading are breakouts and retracements. Here we can see the areas they are likely to generate losing trades in a typical trend formation.
On the left, we have breakout loses. On the right we have retracement losses.
The trades on the right are not too much of a problem. If you had a sold trend trading strategy using breakouts and maintained it with good money management, you'd be doing well. Having some strings of small losses would not matter relative to the trend moves you catch. It's this red bit. This is where things get sketchy. Here a lot of false signals will be generated. In a larger picture for retracement traders, but also on short term false breakouts.
Strategies that would have been very profitable ran through the blue area can become breakeven or losing strategies in the red area. This is actually (in my view) likely the reason most trend based EAs that can be designed easily or bought have limited long term profitability even if they produce great short term results. To make money in a blue market, the EA needs you to tell it how to do two things. Not get stopped out, and sell. There may be bumpy bits, but it will make money so long as that market condition continues.
This is all well and good, but the reality of having to deal with risk control in adverse market conditions will inevitably come along. When this happens, not adapting your trend strategy to filter out the losing streaks that most strategies will generate seriously hampers your net profitability and can even turn a good strategy bad.
In the early week gap and brief breakout on USDJPY, I thought it was likely we were switching from a blue market to a red market. So I activated the trend followers of different variations on my Shorting Noobs strategy, and waited to see if they'd pick up the worst signals (giving me ideal entries).
I explained what I thought the best trade pan for the sort of price action we'd see in the coming trading sessions would be.
My theory here is if you put a bunch of okay strategies (and these are not horrible traders. They have rules, and follow them. Do overall okay) into the very worst conditions, they'll do the worst thing. Which saves me the effort of being here doing what I think is the best thing. To look for big drops, and then it have a little false breakout. Buy this and take profits into spikes.
Here that is a bit closer.
Particularly where the red mark is, this has produce a perfect counter signal. Sharp drop, false breakout. Buy and take profit into spike up.
The interesting thing about this for me, is I do not find too much to be critical about with many of these positions if we are to look at the market from the perspective of a seller. Their stop losses seem to make sense from much of the stop loss rules commonly used (and ones working for them okay in other times of the strategy), but they're commonly being stopped out at the highs.
The main problem most strategies have is the recurrence of what can be increasingly strong looking sell signals. When using solid rules, this is a limited problem (can still be big), but without this and with there being emotional decisions made, this is a really hard time to trade. It's easy to lose all your money trying to follow the trend here, without really doing too much wrong other than starting to chase a loss or refuse to accept a loss. Then things happen so quickly, and that's it. Being a revenge seller selling into the bear engulfing bars right before the 50 pips 1 minute candles does not go well a few times in a row (tried and tested, would not recommend).
As I mentioned in the comments for the OP of this analysis, I stopped selling at 106.05. I stopped copying most of the strategies there because I didn't want them accumulating sells at a possible high. All through the consolidation period their have been sells accumulating and obviously the stops are above the highs, which is exactly the area I'd expect to spike out and reverse from in this pattern. It's what my manual trade plan inverts.
So at this point these strategies that have been doing well over the blue period (which has been a longer time) have lost most of gains. If the trend continues from here in the main they will breakeven on this red section (would be okay). If there are spike outs of the highs they will generate a lot more losing signals. By the end of this, strategies that have been profitable for 3 months will have leaked back a substantial amount of that in only 4 - 5 days.
Learning to remove these correction weeks from their trading patterns would very much benefit most trend following systems.
Here's the overall results from betting against either trend following or trend reversal mistakes like this.
A counter trend move is a price correction opposite to the primary trend. This move is generally smaller in nature, but may take more time to complete this consolidation pattern. Below is the image of a counter trend price move: Counter Trend Moves. Above you see the 2-minute chart of Twitter from July 11, 2016. The blue line indicates the support line of the uptrend. Also illustrated are the ... Counter-trend strategies involve a way of determining a potential market turning point. Formations, involving a few candlesticks are often used as the first indication. There are many variations of the these bars: pin bars, kangaroo tails and so on. The essence is that you see a candle, which has a long wick in the direction of the dominant trend. The close should be Here is an example: Forex Blog; Podcast; Disclaimer; Contact; Testimonials; Counter Trend Trading – Not My Problem (Podcast Episode 26) December 17, 2018 by VP. We’re trend traders. We want to trade with the trend. So then how do we handle currency pairs that are in a counter trend? How do we even define a counter trend? Let’s talk. You can catch the podcast right here, or continue reading on. A two-part ... Submit by Danny 16/10/2015 Counter Trend Strategy is a contrarian trading system based on Forex Milionaire indicator filterd. Here there are three system Here I filtered forex milionaire in three ways. The first with Trend Half a trend following indicator fast. The second with the indicator Step Ma, the third with indicators of strength and trend-mometum (Williams' Percent Range, and RSX CFB). Countertrend Trading: A type of swing-trading strategy that assumes a current trading trend will reverse and attempts to profit from that reversal. Countertrend trading is a medium-term strategy ... The Supertrend EA is a Trend Trading Expert Advisor and trades all 4 signals of the Supertrend Plus Indicator. The 4 signals are Trend Change, Breakout, Correction and Pullback. You can choose for each signal whether you want to trade it or not. 578# EA Basket Trading; 579# Vortex Trading System; 580# Turbo FX System; 581# RSI Signal Trading System; 582# Signal Line Forex Reversal System; 583# CCI Contrarian Trading System ; 584# Neuro Trend (NN Cloned) 585# The Snake with T3 clean system; 586# Master Precision Trend Trading System; 587# LR Channel 4H Trading; 588# Fisher Indicator with Vortex; 589# Fibonacci Bands Trading System; 590 ...
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